Japan being a close neighbor and a strong competitor to South Korea in the Asia-Pacific region, the news of Japanese prime minister's announcing that Japan would also participate in the Pacific Free Trade talks can be large determinant to the South Korean economy. Therefore, I brought articles from the Korea Joonang Daily and the New York Times to look at possibilities of Japan joining the Pacific Free Trade talks and the impacts of Japan joining.
The New York Times mainly talks about how the Japanese people and press are reacting to the prime minister Yoshihiko Noda's intention to join the Pacific Free Trade talks. The article says that most of the Japanese people are accepting the action of participating in a free trade agreement as threat to Japanese culture. Being a conservative culture, opening its market to the world's largest and influential economy is accepted as a huge threat to their traditional ways of living. Also, politically influential Japanese farmers are showing strong disagreements toward joining FTA talks. They strongly argue that their industry cannot survive the harsh competition with large industrial farming in Australia and the United States. This has been shown through strong disapproval from one of Yoshihiko Noda's coalition parties. However, if Japan does not join firms such as Toyota and Honda will loose competitive edge in price compared to Hyundai which will be exempted from tariffs in the United States and continues to benefit from low won to dollar exchange rate. The articles ends by quoting on a professor from Keio University saying that although there will be some disadvantages if Japan joins FTA talks, the disadvantages will be greater if Japan does not join the pact.
The Korea Joongang Daily is similar to the New York Times in explaining the harsh opposition that the prime minister Yoshihiko Noda is facing from the public. However, it goes further by praising the success of historical Meji Restoration by Japan during the mid 1800s. The article argues that with the historical evidence that Japanese overcomes hardships, if Japan joins the Trans-Pacific Partnership, it is likely that Japan will be able to quickly recover from its nuclear disaster. I totally agree that Japan will become a stronger competitor after it joins the TPP. However, for the evidence the article gave to support its argument is not persuasive, since it has been more than 150 years since Meji Restoration. We do not assume that an incident that happened 150 years ago will strongly prove how people will react now. I believe that the newspaper could have given better support for its argument if it mentioned successful Japanese firms such as Toyota and Honda which are strong rivals to Hyundai, a Korean firm or Sony to Samsung.
As the two articles from these two newspapers argue, it will not be easy for the Japanese prime minister to push forward the parliament to approve joining the TPP, facing so much opposition from the public. Also, traditionally Japanese leaders with the exception of Junichiro Goizumi had weak leaderships skills and less appeal to the public. So it will be hard for Yoshihiko Noda to persuade the public to agree to the parties' decision. However, since the Japanese government is strongly connected to Japanese firms allowing the Japanese firms to have strong influence over the government's decisions, I believe that Japan will eventually be able to join the TPP. Since losing price advantage and market share in the international market to Korean firms is harmful to Japanese firms, Japanese firms will likely strongly lobby Japanese politicians to approve FTA deals. However, with so much opposition from the public and especially from the rural areas, it will be a hard process. But it is a matter of time for the Japanese to join the TPP. I believe South Korea should be prepared for it but it should not rush to approve if the deal is an unequal treaty. Also, since South Korea had initiated the talks with the U.S. faster than Japan, South Korea still have time to modify its treaty so that it is a fair trade deal and does not create problems in the future. In Korea, there is a saying that "the more urgent you are, use the longer road."
I agree with your opinion. Actually, I think, there is no policy that can make everybody satisfactory within a country. As you say, it seems clear that japanese government will approve joining the TPP in spite of disagreement of the public. Now the governments should concentrate on looking for ways to make the treaty create the best economic value for both countries in a long-term view.
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